Romney's quandary

The World Next Week Oxford Analytica - Oxford, England

Strategic dilemma Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney faces a major strategic dilemma this week, when he decides whether to publicly address the issue of his Mormon faith. With the Iowa caucuses drawing near, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is threatening to overcome Romney's perceived financial and polling advantages there. A key bloc of Republican voters Romney is courting -- conservative evangelicals -- are very wary of his Mormon beliefs. He faces an uphill battle to assuage their fears. Pride and prejudice The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS), as the Mormons call their institution, is one of the most rapidly expanding Christian sects in the world. There are nearly three million self-identified members of the Church in the United States and close to 13 million members globally. Church teachings emphasise traditional gender and family roles, which has helped promote a rapid expansion overseas. While other Christians deem many Mormon beliefs deeply eccentric or heretical, their secular activities in the United States are almost always seen in a positive light. Mormons are active members of their communities, and make major contributions to the arts, public service, and secular charities. They also have cosmopolitan outlooks, as young men are required -- and young women are encouraged -- to serve two-year missions abroad. However, there is considerable prejudice directed at the Church in the United States. The problem is less the modern Church, than enduring public disquiet about its past practices. The LDS Church encouraged polygamy until 1890, and only moved to absolutely proscribe the practice in 1905. However, its insistence on monogamy, and the active promotion of traditional families, has been part of its core doctrine for over a century. A tiny group calling themselves the Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (FLDS) continues to practice plural marriage. The FLDS leader, Warren Jeffs, was this year sentenced to life in prison in Utah for arranging the marriages of underage girls. While FLDS groups have no connections to the regular LDS Church, the Jeffs affair received heavy US media coverage. Many voters associate Jeffs with Mormonism. The head of the LDS Church is known as the 'president and prophet'. This implies both secular and religious authority to many non-Mormons. Strategic dilemma The handicap that Romney suffers due to his Mormon faith is limited, but possibly crucial: It will not hurt his campaign much in Western or Northeastern states. In the former, voters tend to know many Mormons personally and are comfortable with their beliefs. In the Northeast, religious tolerance is deeply ingrained. However, Republican primary voters in the South and Midwest include a large number of conservative protestant evangelicals. They tend to be very rigid on questions of doctrine; some see Mormonism as an insalubrious cult. Former President John F. Kennedy was famously forced to disavow the secular authority of the Pope in a public address to protestant evangelicals during his 1960 campaign. The Romney camp is divided on the issue: media reports suggest that the candidate himself favours a public address to explain his faith, while many of his advisors are opposed. Yet if he wants to capture the Republican nomination, Romney needs to publicly defend his beliefs. Handled adroitly, this might even transform a political liability into an asset.

OxAn.com December 1-7, 2007 Issue

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