Recession reins in sprawl

By Howard Fischer Capitol Media Services Arizona Daily Star - Tucson, Arizona

PHOENIX — The shrinking economy is taking a toll on growth and urban sprawl. New figures this morning from the U.S. Census Bureau show that the rate of population growth has slowed in most Arizona communities. In some cases, the pace between July 1, 2007, and a year later is only half that in the 12 months preceding. The pattern is especially evident in what had been the "hot" growth communities of the first half of the decade, those in what had been the exurbs — often affluent areas beyond typical suburbs. For example, Fountain Hills, north of Scottsdale, saw its year-over-year growth rate cut in half. A nearly similar decline was logged in Queen Creek, southeast of Mesa. In Sahuarita, the decline was not quite as precipitous: from 18.7 percent in 2007 over 2006 to less than 11 percent the following year. Marana also saw its growth slowed. In some cases, the drop was even sharper. Litchfield Park found just a 1 percent year-over-year growth, a third of what it was the year before. Even outside the two big metro areas, there were some sharp declines. Lake Havasu City, for example, found its 1.1 percent growth rate between 2006 and 2007 slashed to just 0.2 percent. And Pinetop-Lakeside grew at just a fifth of the rate it had the prior 12 months. Even Flagstaff grew at just half the rate in 2008 as in the prior period. Tucson saw its growth rate fall to 0.9 percent in 2008, from 1.3 percent between 2006 and 2007. A few communities bucked the trend. Oro Valley managed to maintain its growth rate. And Phoenix actually posted an increase. Several small communities lost population. The one that was not surprising was Colorado City, on the Arizona-Utah border. It was vacated by many members of the Fundamentalist Church of Latter Day Saints after Warren Jeffs, its leader, was arrested. Slower growth notwithstanding, five Arizona communities still managed to post double-digit population increases. New figures today from the U.S. Census Bureau find Buckeye, a sprawling community on the far west edge of the Phoenix area, increasing its size by nearly 26 percent. Even with that, though, the population on July 1, 2008, was just 47,261. Similarly, the other communities with increases of at least 10 percent all are relatively small — at least for the time being. These places include Maricopa, Sahuarita, Somerton and Goodyear. Among large communities, the rate of change was smaller. But that didn't mean there weren't some that showed strong growth. Gilbert, for example, added more than 10,000 people in a single year. That is a 5 percent increase in one year, somewhat slower than the 5.3 percent annual increase the prior year. Even with that, though, the community continues to show remarkable growth: The Census Bureau reports that Gilbert grew at the second-fastest rate among the nation's communities of more than 100,000 population. In fact, it added more than 100,000 residents since the decennial census, putting its population on July 1, 2008, at 216,449 — an 88 percent increase. Two other Arizona cities also were in the top 20 nationwide among rapidly growing communities of more than 100,000: Peoria with a 45 percent growth rate since 2000 and Chandler at 39.5 percent. Overall, Arizona grew at a rate of 2.3 percent in the year that ended on July 1, 2008, compared with 2.8 percent the year before. And the state population is up close to 31 percent since the 2000 census.

azstarnet.com Originally published July 1, 2009

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